As I have been slowly working my way back into the beer world (and real life), I have been asked two questions countless times. “Why do you think Alberta beer is exploding?” And, “Are we going to max out?”

The first question requires a longer response than I wish to do at the moment – today I just want to dip my and your toe into the water a bit. But allow me a couple of initial, tentative thoughts to whet your appetite and jog my thinking.

The number of Alberta breweries has exploded in the last four years (see chart). This is a fact not lost on anyone but it is good to look at the numbers a bit. First, for context we need to remember that back in 2011 there were only 9 independent brewery operations (Brewsters and Bear Hills had multiple licenses). We saw steady but not jaw-dropping growth for the next few years of 15% to 25% increases. 2015 was the year things started to take off, with annual increases of 40% or more each year. The best year by percentage was 2016 where the number of breweries doubled. 2018 was teh best year in raw totals, with 28 new breweries and 2019 looks like it will smash that, with 16 already. (Note: my numbers may be off by a couple here or there; I have not yet had time to properly update my database so there may be some errors.)

For any industry that is astronomical growth. Yes, many of those breweries are fairly small, serving local communities and not pushing onto the provincial market. We will leave that caveat aside for the moment.

The reason? Two-fold in my mind. The biggest is changes in government policy and approach to the industry. The past eight years, and in particular the last four, have witnessed a complete turnabout with how the Alberta government perceives the industry and sees its role in promoting the industry. That has serious impacts.

I will save the details about which policies and whether the Tories or the NDP deserve more credit to another day – remember this is a toe-dipping post (unsurprising spoiler: I will suggest it is complex). But it is a reminder to all of us that government plays an important role in setting the market conditions.

The second reason is the Zeitgeist. To over-simplify we could say it is the growing awareness and support for local food and independent businesses. That is somewhat true, but I will boldly say that I believe that reason is overblown. There is, no doubt, a growing local food movement and it should not be discounted. But most people are only vaguely onside with the notion of local to the extent they know the right things to say but will wander into a chain restaurant or buy a macro pseudo-craft beer without thinking about it.

No, by Zeitgeist I mean a more nebulous sense of “spirit of the times”. The Alberta beer industry has people’s attention in a way it didn’t four years ago. Consumers feel, in a poorly articulated way, that there is something “interesting” about Alberta beer these days. In part I think this attributable to there being more selection and a wider range of styles and flavours that comes with a growing industry. But it is more than that. Bars feel a greater need to carry local. Liquor stores create an Alberta section where they didn’t two years ago.

I see it in my interactions with average beer drinkers all the time. It is hard to pinpoint exactly what it is and what it means, which is why the word Zeitgeist seems so appropriate.

As for the second question – are we topping out – my short answer is NO. The slightly longer answer is that anyone who thinks they can predict where this is headed in the next couple years is either deluding themselves or you. The market is simply too unstable at the moment. We can’t control the Zeitgeist and what that might mean. And growth has its own momentum. What seemed impossible five years ago is now the status quo. And don’t get me started on the uncertainty of the regulatory regime (well, you can but another day), which can have a huge impact.

Yes, there will be closures; in every industry businesses fail. The key is not to dwell on the individual stories and see the grand arch. And for the moment it is all pointing up in Alberta.

I am glad I am back and look forward to watching it unfold.